Just for your entertainment, I offer these feeble predictions. I’m half serious, of course, but I have no inside knowledge. This is what I believe is likely only at the moment I post it, and is subject to revision on the basis of more facts, or just whatever strikes my fancy. It’s a game.
I keep running into folks who seriously believe war with Iran starts on or about the 10th of this month. That’s next Tuesday. What would be a likely scenario?
Seems to me Israel will start things off. She wont invade Iran, just try to bomb some targets. The invasion part will be for Lebanon, and possibly some battles with Syria. The latter is more likely for the sake of interdicting support for Lebanon.
Who’s to say whether the bombing of Iran will work? Could get shot down, since the business of those Russian S-300 missiles is not exactly settled. Israelis almost certainly will use a nuke somewhere because they are that crazy. The world won’t be very forgiving, and this could well be the end for Israel. You can bet the US is not afraid to use them, either, but I would expect more of the highly advanced energy weapons no one talks about. Yet, I’m pretty sure the attitude of the US-Israeli military planners is this need not be total warfare, just a good heavy strike on the nuclear facilities.
So they say, at least. Actually, since they all know in reality Iran’s program is no threat at all, it’s just the lie they tell to cover up the insistence on trying to force other states to have governments and policies they like. Such arrogance is good at blinding folks to real results. Let’s understand: This is about forcing Iran to become yet another resource for corporate profits. Iran knows, and correctly says, this is about a forced “regime change.”
Iran will surely shut down the Straights of Hormuz. It wouldn’t be that hard, and very difficult to reopen. All it has to do is become unsafe for most commercial shipping to stop. Think about all the petroleum suddenly not shipping out. If nothing else, that would very much be our best excuse to get involved, since our government has been planning in very concrete terms to bomb Iran since at least as early as 1995.
Now, we have to wonder if Turkey will sit idle, since it would be a good time to grab a few Kurds in Iraq. Given China and Russia have billions invested in Iran, we can’t afford to ignore the very high probability of at least indirect support. Say, early warning of Israeli and American jets, as a starter. More active support would surely draw us in, since Israel can’t face either of them, much less both. I suppose Georgia might try to pull a stunt to distract Russia, but it won’t be enough.
And then there is India, allied with Israel, and itching to settle that issue with the Kashmir border and Pakistan. And China has an argument with India, too, over their shared border region.
What I’m getting at is this: It could quickly become WW3, the event we’ve all been waiting for. And the US will probably re-institute the draft, and there will be riots over that, not to mention transportation grinding to halt on gasoline prices trebling. So we can throw in food riots in almost every big city, since none of them grow their own. Oh, and I predict we will get our butts handed us on the field of battle this time. We won’t be able to field enough troops and resources quickly enough, completely underestimating the enemy.
We’ll have to change our military salute, unless the commanders simply refuse to admit we were actually defeated. The business of facing the palm to the ground is a subtle brag we’ve never lost. Facing the palm outward recognizes we’ve been beaten at least once.
But, of course, this is all for fun, right?
