This is the unhappy part of my calling, but I’d be derelict of duty if I remained silent on such things.
The economy is already collapsing. It’s been wobbling for quite some time and is now grinding to a halt. There’s an awful lot of folks scraping off whatever is still lose before the economic activity essentially stops. Several different causes are racing to be first, but the current system will simply stop working. It appears for now the trigger will be a collapse in value of the dollar. The plutocrats are trying to grab ownership of real property so that they aren’t stuck with worthless dollars. Dollar denominated debt will become quite worthless, too.
It’s possible the plutocrats would try to enforce a new monetary system, but I don’t think that’s likely to work.
The real problem is not that folks can no longer find a way to exchange labor and goods. That’s not too hard to work out quickly on the street level. The real threat in this are those factors in our system that depend most on a flow of money: government agencies (and many non-profits). When money quits coming in or simply quits buying what governments consume, look for confiscation under the cover of tax-in-kind. This is what will get very ugly and make things unstable.
I have serious doubts those in our current government will be able to keep it all together. The officials lack the wisdom and moral fortitude to stop before pushing things over the edge. They also lack the competence to maintain control when things become intolerable for those capable of resisting. That the government will go too far is a given.
There will be no shortage of law enforcement thugs ready to fight, and this is especially sad. This is what guarantees maximum bloodshed, some areas more than others. However, aside from some very early advantages, there are nowhere near enough of them to maintain control. We can be assured the military will also get involved, but there is nothing to guarantee it will in all cases be on the side of government officials. I expect a significant number of upper ranks to face execution by their own men.
Once the old order has been broken down, the new will be a scramble. However, the power and will to fight is with the political right (which is not at all the same thing as mainstream Republicans). American lefties are communists without courage, glad to see someone else enforce their will with maximum bloodshed, but not willing themselves to face death for their ideals. I honestly expect many of them to die anyway, because it won’t be the saner version of the Tea Party folks running things at first. The kind of folks who can effectively rebel and survive aren’t nice people, and there are more of them than you know. They aren’t too rough now, but when the shooting starts, the crazy comes out and won’t go back in the bottle easily.
This assumes things won’t simply fall apart too quickly. If our ruling authorities somehow realize they have lost control and stop pretending, there will be far less bloodshed. It’s possible, but I consider it unlikely at this point. I find it hard to imagine any significant portion would be willing to recognize their job is gone and go find something else to do. I’m also excluding from this discussion the possibility of third parties getting involved.
Worst of all is that portions of the US will most certainly suffer severe ethnic warfare. It’s impossible to predict which groups will declare alliances, or on what basis and for how long. Most of it will be local in nature as gangs will be the first ready to take advantage of changes, while the more patriotic militias will be slow to focus unless they are already engaged in serious planning and intel operations. We should expect multi-party fighting in urban areas.
Some state and local governments have already begun taking the measure of things, though not widely advertised. I predict the Heartland will be relatively stable, with a lot of refugees fleeing that direction. That area is also much better off economically, currently exporting energy and food.
This is simply my personal estimate of things, none of which I anticipate with relish.
