I’m hardly the first one to observe this fact: Uprisings and revolts do not arise from anger against oppression. That sort of rage is always there, from start to finish of every empire. There is always someone feeling oppressed and ready to revolt. The issue is that any attempt at revolt is very obviously hindered, squelched by the system that constitutes “oppression” in the first place. Thus, we can say that all revolts arise from opportunity, not from discontent. The presence and level of discontent mean nothing; it’s a given. Rather, it’s that the situation changed and revolt became possible.
Right now, a revolt in the US is not feasible. As long as this is true, there will be no civil war. The atrocious behavior of our government officials has no bearing on the question. Something has to change that removes the hindrance. For the various empires across history, internal revolts invariably followed when something external distracted the government. In most cases, the resources used to hinder revolt were redirected to address external threats, and the revolt came shortly after.
An American civil war waits for something that weakens the oppressive hand of our government in contrast to the strength of the opposition. Here in America, it is most likely to be the case that oppression will not weaken so much as the opposition will become relatively stronger. And that strength has nothing to do with actual violence. There will most certainly be violence, but it will be a symptom, not the thing itself. Rather, the strength of the opposition will come when they realize that the system will take more wealth than it enables.
Right now, what restrains the apparent opposition is a belief in the system. Dinesh D’Souza talks about that here while promoting his new film, Police State. I’m not going to promote the movie; I’m not likely to see it unless a copy is available for free. It’s not that I hate paying; I really hate theaters. I prefer to watch films alone. And as it is, I despise the medium enough that I won’t pay for the experience. They’ll have to come to me.
You probably believe that, in broad general terms, a civil war would be between conservatives and progressives. By now, you probably know that the two political parties are not actually aligned against each other on those viewpoints. Both are progressive in nature; it’s just a dispute over who benefits from the warfare-welfare state. A civil war will not be partisan in that sense because Republicans would never revolt. They are part of the system. Rather, a civil war seems more likely a fight between the system (leftist) and the oppressed subjects (more or less conservative).
D’Souza explains how the system is inherently unfair to conservatives. The pro-government folks are never held to any standards or restrictions; they can do anything they like. The rules don’t apply to them. Instead, they apply the rules to conservatives, because they know conservatives will always follow the rules. Those rules are the right-wing god. Until they lose their religion and stop serving that idol, they will not rise up against the government. It’s not likely.
The civil war will happen, but not from the basis of angry conservatives. D’Souza is wasting his time thinking he can stir up revolt. The interview linked above is worth your time because it reveals at least one thing few realize: The January 6 “insurrection” was actually staged by the Democrats to derail the proceedings in which the Republicans were striving to challenge the election results. They were in a hurry to stop that debate until they could trot out the heavy propaganda against challenging the election results, making them sacred. In other words, the conservatives shot themselves in the foot, and the foot soldiers are in prison for their pains.
And it will keep on going like this. The civil war will not come from conservatives. It will come from states having too strong of an interest in things the federal government is trying to destroy. It’s about the money. The livelihoods of too many wealthy people rest on fighting to keep the economy working, while the federal government frankly follows an agenda to destroy the economy. As with almost every revolt against empires in human history, a vassal government will rise up to oppose the imperium. In our case, it will be multiple subject governments, the states.
Again: Don’t pay attention to the atrocities our government commits against the people. Don’t pay attention to the rising grievances. That has no bearing on the future civil war. What matters is the big money interests of people operating without the support of any federal agencies, and generally against federal policy. They are already enemies of the imperial government. They will use conservative grievance to fire up the voters’ support for something that isn’t about the voters at all.
