We were discussing offline the magnitude of the action in the Bab-el-Mandeb Straight. The Houthis struck the Saudi oil tanker Encelia in the southern Red Sea. There’s no confirmation of a second ship. So far as I can determine, that ship is an “Aframax” running just over 100K tons, what seems to be about middling size. The point of discussion was the impact this has on oil trade.
There are anywhere from 8K-10K oil vessels. Of those, only about half are currently active — something just over 4K. About 160 of them are stuck in the Persian Gulf right now. Of those not trapped, the breakdown of how many of each size-class varies, but the active traffic stats indicate that the Aframax size is about one-fifth (over 1K).
As a side note, there is a very substantial “shadow fleet” actively working, mostly smaller vessels. Ships sold for scrap are sometimes diverted to the shadows and used by nations like Russia trying to avoid oil sanctions. It is a growing portion of all the oil that Russia ships. From what I can gather, the primary means of keeping track of the traffic is insurance records, and Russia’s shadow fleet simply does not participate in the standard global insurance market.
The point here is that an expensive ship was lost, but from the photos is appears that the vessel was not fully loaded. A video I found shows most of the deck aflame. If it burned very long, the metal exposed to flame would weaken and the ship would require awfully expensive renovation to remain in service. The price of a replacement is around $50 million.
This single vessel and cargo is big enough to notice, but it represents something much bigger: The Saudis will have trouble selling their oil. They currently don’t have any way to ship out oil except their port on the Persian Gulf (blocked by Iran) and the terminal in the Red Sea (now blocked by the Houthis). The ruling family cannot afford for this to continue more than a week or so.
However, Iran and their clients, the Houthis, have gotten pretty good at this. All the bombs and missiles the US could drop on them won’t change much. That’s in part because the US doesn’t have that many bombs and missiles right now; we didn’t build up a good inventory for anything more than a brief action. Trump’s previous and current efforts with Iran have brought that small inventory down dangerously, and the Pentagon is broke.
Congress has already demanded that the warfare in Iran stop — twice. Trump has ignored them. Most Americans don’t notice. They are largely oblivious to the action along with the implications. We cannot afford to serve Israel like this. No human can see the breaking point, but it’s for sure we are getting to it.
Most of my readers are the kind of people who have been prepared for a while. There’s nothing I can add to that. You cannot count on having any more time. Indeed, the breaking point may not be that easy to identify when it passes.
It’s not just the political and economic instability that hits everyone, but those of us who aren’t Zionists will face the added risk of censorship and persecution. It’s here, folks. The pain may not manifest immediately, but the damage is done.
